Automotive Market Future
We are a us based investment firm that is doing some work on the future of the automotive market. It is a pretty broad assignment that will likely require pulling from different areas of expertise. These are large complicated topics and we have done a fair amount of secondary research on them and are looking for advisors with deep expertise and current perspectives on these topics and an ability to go beyond the high level headlines to provide well thought out, fact-based views.
1) outlook for aftermarket in light of headwinds (collision avoidance technologies) and tailwinds (distracted driving)
a.) view on collisions / collision rates in 2020s/2030/2040 with ability to articulate rationale (number of accidents that can be addressed by different collision avoidance technologies, with views on adoption of those technologies)
b.) perspective on rising collision rates over last few years and outlook for collision rates in short to medium term given demographics (e.G. Aging population / drivers license participation from younger drivers) and distracted driving. What has been the impact of these various factors? Have we seen most of it or should we expect meaningful impact?
C.) expert may come from auto industry, insurance, regulatory / non-profit
2) electric vehicles and impact on aftermarket in the us
a.) views on degree and timing of electric vehicle penetration (through 2030/2040), and key variables
b.) perspective on ownership cost (maintenance) of an electric vehicle vs. Ice, and implications for auto aftermarket
3) fuel efficiency outlook in the us
a.) views on mpg outlook for the car parc in 2030 and 2040, and total fuel demand
b.) high level perspectives on powertrain technologies (ice, hybrid, plug in ev, fuel cell) prospects (share of new vehicles and car parc for each technology)
4) impact of autonomous on us auto industry (car parc, miles traveled, new vehicle sales)
a.) provide an integrated view of the us auto industry in 2030/ 2040 incorporating macro/demographic factors, autonomous vehicle share (of new vehicle sales, miles driven, car parc), private vehicle miles driven and car parc
b.) ability to discuss basis for assumptions for autonomous penetration, e.G. Addressable vehicle miles travel according to use case / geographic setting (urban vs. Suburban vs. Rural) or some other segmentation approach
5) drivers license participation and vehicle density trends/outlook
a.) view on dl participation and vehicle density in 2030 / 2040
b.) explanation of historical trends and near term outlook
i. How much of a factor is demographic shift from rural to urban, vs. Changes within urban settings that can be explained by demographic mix (age, income etc) vs. True participation and density declines controlling for demographics
ii. Explaining decline in dl participation among youngest drivers (below 19); perspective on impact of driver’s license laws (how much of the penetration decline has been driven by this, and will license laws continue to put pressure on this segment or have they largely run their course)
6) impact on new vehicle sales and aftermarket of improving quality / views on scrapage rates and average age (2030 / 2040)
7) integrated view of automotive aftermarket outlook for 2030 / 2040 considering vehicle quality, electric vehicles, safety technologies, autonomous etc, by segment, e.G.
- collision repair
- specialty / discretionary
in your response, please include your experience as it pertains to the above and any other details that will help us in deciding to move forward with scheduling a call. Thank you in advance.
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